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Nick Silitch, with decades of experience across financial cycles, cautions that today’s economic environment—defined by escalating leverage, private credit growth, and potential interest rate spikes—resembles prior crises but with less structural protection.
He warns that the removal of subordinated debt layers and dependency on weaker credit ratings could make defaults more severe and widespread. Unlike past cycles where falling rates softened the blow, he anticipates the opposite dynamic now: rising rates compounding stress and reducing recovery potential.
Silitch stresses that effective risk management must rely not just on historical data, but on forward-looking, deterministic stress testing. He emphasizes understanding systemic imbalances, particularly in areas like federal debt, interest rate volatility, and ecosystem fragility.
The evolving global financial system, he argues, demands continuous learning and exposure to diverse views. Events like Risk Americas play a crucial role in facilitating this, offering risk professionals the rare opportunity to step outside organizational silos and gain global, cross-sector insight.