Inside Bank Stress Testing and Operational Risk Forecasting in a Volatile Economy

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Banks Confront Rising Risks in Capital Stress Testing and Operational Loss Forecasting

Banks are recalibrating stress tests amid rising economic uncertainty and volatile interest rates. This episode of Risk Leaders Connect digs into how institutions tailor scenarios to their specific risks and the thorny task of projecting operational losses without a full history—revealing how judgment, scenario design, and Fed oversight combine to keep capital buffers robust.

Jun 05, 2025

Sergey Yeremenko, Internal Audit Director, Capital Markets and Market Risk, PNC

Tags: Stress Testing

Banks Confront Rising Risks in Capital Stress Testing and Operational Loss Forecasting

Stress testing is no longer a box-checking exercise for banks—it’s a dynamic, ongoing process that blends regulatory requirements with internal risk intelligence. While the Federal Reserve sets a “severely adverse” baseline, banks face pressure to identify emerging threats like trade disruptions and persistent inflation, which can dramatically reshape their risk profiles. This adaptive approach demands constant scenario updates and sharp judgment to ensure capital buffers remain adequate through unpredictable cycles. Operati

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