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Article
Banking on a Mirage - Why Climate Risk Models May Be Failing Us
A leading model validation expert calls for a paradigm shift in financial risk modeling, warning that climate risks defy conventional assumptions and demand urgent, data-driven, and forward-looking integration into credit stress tests.
May 13, 2025
Andreas Simou, Managing Director, Center for Financial Professionals
Tags:
ESG and Climate Risk
Stress Testing
The views and opinions expressed in this content are those of the thought leader as an individual and are not attributed to CeFPro or any other organization
- Integrating climate risks into credit risk stress testing requires a deep understanding of the assumptions and uncertainties behind climate model inputs to avoid misleading outcomes.
- The mismatch between short-term financial stress testing horizons and long-term climate risk scenarios presents major challenges, particularly given the limited usefulness of historical data in projecting future climate trends.
- Static assumptions in modeling, such as fixed carbon prices or unchanging balance sheets, fail to capture the dynamic nature of company behavior and should be replaced by adaptive, bottom-up approaches that account for real-world responses.
- As regulatory expectations around climate risk evolve, institutions must align internal models with long-term climate objectives, treating ESG and climate considerations not as optional add-ons but as essential components of risk management frameworks.
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