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Climate Stress Tests Are Broken - Banks Must Build Their Own
Climate scenarios built for science don’t translate cleanly into finance. Central bankers are adding short-term adversity and sector detail, while banks are engineering in-house models, validation methods and narratives to turn climate risk from awareness into real decision-making. The next frontier – nature risk – demands data, geography and supply-chain insight before stress testing can be credible.
Oct 10, 2025
Lara Hall
Lara Hall, Event Producer, Center for Financial Professionals (CeFPro)
Tags: Stress Testing
Climate Stress Tests Are Broken - Banks Must Build Their Own
The views and opinions expressed in this content are those of the thought leader as an individual and are not attributed to CeFPro or any other organization

• Early climate scenarios lack short-term adversity and sector detail
• Central bankers are adding policy and market shocks with PD and spread impacts
• Banks are building agent-based models and SSP – RCP methods to own assumptions
• Qualitative 10-year narratives guide strategy but need quantitative bridges
• Validation shifts to plausibility, traceability and explainability
• Data consistency and geolocation are prerequisites for credible analysis
• Nature risk demands localized data and supply-chain transmission mapping
• Goal is full integration of climate risk into standard stress testing
• Internal models improve ownership, transparency and decision usefulness
• The focus moves from awareness to action and integration

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