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Event Q&A
Is Uncertainty a Greater Threat to the Economy Than Inflation?
Despite cooling inflation, financial markets face escalating volatility due to policy uncertainty and tariff-driven disruptions. Deniz Tudor, Head of Balance Sheet Risk, Chatham Financial, argues that recession risks are real, consumer credit is under strain, and hedging – not hope – may be business' best defense in a tightening macroeconomic landscape.
Sep 10, 2025
Tags:
Operational and Non Financial Risk
Market Risk
The views and opinions expressed in this content are those of the thought leader as an individual and are not attributed to CeFPro or any other organization
- Inflation may be easing but market volatility remains elevated due to policy uncertainty
- Tariffs and trade disruption could worsen inflation by increasing costs for domestic manufacturers
- Subprime borrowers are already struggling, with delinquencies nearing Great Recession levels
- Consumer savings are depleted and credit usage is high, signaling rising financial stress
- Hedging strategies — swaps, swaptions, collars — are essential to navigate macro uncertainty
- Market trust in the Fed remains strong but not limitless
- Manufacturing reshoring rhetoric clashes with data showing services as the U.S.’ comparative advantage
- Investment sentiment is weakening amid declining business confidence
- Housing affordability remains low, amplifying consumer pressure
- Recession risks are growing, especially if layoffs increase or spending slows
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