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From Compliance Exercise to Strategic Decision-Making: The Evolving Role of Environmental Scenario Analysis
Mira Lamriben explores the growing supervisory focus on the quality and practical application of environmental scenario analysis, highlighting the importance of linking environmental risks to financial performance, business strategy, and decision-making. The discussion examines proportionality in climate risk methodologies, integration with risk appetite and planning processes, and the expansion of scenario analysis frameworks beyond climate to address biodiversity, water stress, pollution, and broader environmental risks.
Oct 06, 2026

Mira Lamriben, Climate Risk Expert, EBA
Tags:
ESG and Climate Risk
The views and opinions expressed in this content are those of the thought leader as an individual and are not attributed to CeFPro or any other organization
- Environmental scenario analysis should be integrated into strategy, risk management, and business planning rather than treated as a standalone compliance exercise.
- Supervisory focus is increasingly centred on the quality, use, and outcomes of scenario analysis.
- Proportionality, transparency, and continuous capability improvement are more important than methodological sophistication alone.
- Effective scenario analysis should drive tangible management actions and strategic decisions.
- Future frameworks are expected to expand beyond climate risk to capture interconnected environmental risks including biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation.
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