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Adapting Credit Risk Frameworks for Transition Finance
Credit risk assessment frameworks need significant adaptation to evaluate the unique risks associated with transition finance projects, especially in emerging markets. Traditional frameworks, designed for short-term projections and immediate shocks, fall short for climate risk, which requires long-term, 30-year projections and consideration of many new factors. These frameworks must account for a dynamic balance sheet, loss models, and the complexities of climate-related uncertainties.
Aug 06, 2024
C.Robin Castelli
C.Robin Castelli, Partner, Head of Transition Finance Investing, Orange Ridge Capital
Adapting Credit Risk Frameworks for Transition Finance

Credit risk assessment frameworks must significantly adapt to evaluate the unique risks of transition finance projects, especially in emerging markets.

Traditional frameworks, designed for short-term projections and immediate shocks, are inadequate for climate risk, which requires long-term, 30-year projections and consideration of various new factors.

These frameworks need to address a dynamic balance sheet, loss models, and climate-related uncertainties. Unlike standard financial models, climate risk models cannot rely on historical data or back-testing, necessitating novel, computational, and behavioral models.

Additionally, assessments must incorporate numerous variables, including emissions data, asset ownership, and potential impacts from climate-related disruptions, stranded assets, and regulatory changes. 

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