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Elevating Credit Risk Models in Turbulent Times | Credit Risk Unlocked
In an ever-evolving economic landscape, understanding the impact of macroeconomic factors on credit risk modeling is essential for financial institutions. Shifts in the economy can directly and indirectly influence model accuracy, making it crucial for credit risk managers to adapt their methodologies continuously.
Feb 20, 2025
Varun Nakra
Varun Nakra, VP Credit Risk Modelling, Deutsche Bank
Tags: Credit Risk
Elevating Credit Risk Models in Turbulent Times | Credit Risk Unlocked

  • Macroeconomic fluctuations significantly alter the data distribution and accuracy of credit risk models, necessitating continual adaptation.

  • Events like the COVID-19 pandemic showcase how external shocks impact variables like loan serviceability and collateral value, affecting overall model performance.

  • Effective stress testing is crucial; it must link loss estimates to specific macroeconomic projections to accurately assess a bank's resilience.

  • Implementing both top-down and bottom-up approaches to stress testing allows for comprehensive evaluations of potential losses in various economic scenarios.

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