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Article
Stop Predicting Cuts and Start Fortifying Your Balance Sheet
Markets may argue about how many Fed cuts are coming, but the smarter play is resilience. The Americas Treasurer at a leading international bank urges treasurers to prioritize optionality, model issuance risk, expect mobile deposits, and be ready for bursts of refinancing. “Never fight the Fed,” the executive says - but align asset and liability strategies to withstand fiscal supply, customer shifts and policy surprises.
Oct 23, 2025
Tags:
ALM, Treasury and Liquidity Risk
The views and opinions expressed in this content are those of the thought leader as an individual and are not attributed to CeFPro or any other organization
- “Never fight the Fed” - prepare, do not predict
- Cuts depend on growth priorities, not pundit counts
- Price in issuance risk as fiscal supply rises
- Curve now allows extension with minimal or positive carry
- True challenge is customer behavior and balance sheet flexibility
- Deposits are mobile as tech speeds rotation into higher yields
- Mortgage books hold low coupons - refi bursts can still surprise
- Governance should pivot quickly from carry to capital preservation
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