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Article
Climate Scenario Analysis Faces the Ultimate Test
Environmental scenario analysis is moving from regulatory exercise to strategic tool. EBA Climate Risk Expert Mira Lamriben explains why supervisors increasingly want evidence that scenario results influence risk appetite, capital, lending, and strategy, while future frameworks will expand beyond climate to encompass interconnected environmental risks.
Oct 08, 2026
Mira Lamriben, Climate Risk Expert, EBA
Tags:
ESG and Climate Risk
The views and opinions expressed in this content are those of the thought leader as an individual and are not attributed to CeFPro or any other organization
- Supervisors are increasingly focused on the quality and practical use of environmental scenario analysis
- Banks must connect environmental risks to financial performance, business models and strategy
- Proportionality matters more than methodological sophistication alone
- Mature institutions should demonstrate how scenario results trigger management action
- Scenario analysis is expected to integrate with ICAAP, ILAAP, budgeting and strategic planning
- Future analysis will increasingly encompass biodiversity, water stress, pollution and ecosystem degradation
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